Thursday, November 26, 2009

All Costs of the War in Iraq for the USA


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So far the war in Iraq cost America more than 2 trln. dollars and that sum keeps growing every day. Separate discussion is needed in order to comprehend just how big that amount is. In this article, however, we'll try to break down those costs by their nature and origin:

Human costs.

The reason to start from these costs is pretty straight forward. Human losses are unrecoverable and they can never be monetized. To the date the article was written, Iraq war cost the lives of 4,323 U.S. troops. Number of those wounded in action or injured in combat-zone accidents reached 31,368. Given the frequency of battles that US troops are currently exposed this figure is obviously not the final. Furthermore the toll data have been taken from official statistics provided by Pentagon which is widely criticized by public for understatement real casualties. According to the Department of Veterans Affairs - a government department autonomous from the Pentagon - the number of wounded has exceeded 50,000.

Combat operations costs.

To the date, $686 billion dollars have been allocated to the war in Iraq since its start in March 2003 to cover daily cash costs of running the combat operations, feeding, housing, transporting and equipping U.S. troops, paying for reconstruction costs, repairs and replacement parts and training Iraqi forces. The amount keeps growing by 200,000,000$! every day, so by the time you will finish reading this article it will increase by about half million of dollars! Such trend won't be affected by major changes at least till the end of 2009 as the whole spending have been approved in 2009 budget. Considering that Obama has already announced the withdrawal and eventual pullout of troops from Iraq, we can estimate around 130 bln. more to be spend provided that all troops will be withdrawn in a 1.5-2 years. That gives us in total 816 bln. dollars of direct costs spent on Iraq war. This also includes the payment of $500,000 in "death gratuity payment" and life insurance to the families of the fatalities in Iraq.

Health care costs.

These include all costs for the treatment of health problems of troops, such as blast injuries to arms and legs from improvised explosive devices, the historically high instances of traumatic brain injuries, post-traumatic stress disorder. A group of noted physicians predicted that healthcare for Iraq veterans could top $650 billion. We may also rely on available figures for veterans' disability payments. For example, a veteran without a spouse or dependents who is 100 percent disabled receives about $2,400 per month from the government. Over 50 years, that could total more than $1.4 million. Multiplying that by the number of totally disabled veterans would add up 10-15 billion dollars more. Furthermore an increasing number of soldiers are not seeking the care that they need, which affects their ability to get and maintain jobs what eventually leads to greater unseen costs.

Military replenishment costs.

War in Iraq has stretched the US military dangerously thin. The high level of casualties over half of decade has undermined the "human capital" of armed forces. Dealing with current difficulties in recruitment America will have to invest heavily in troops to restore their prewar levels of strength, fitness and readiness. Furthermore it may take more than decade to fully replenish and refurbish the military whose equipment and materiel have been greatly depleted by the war. Estimations show that over the period of fifteen years the military will require 250$-375$ bln to rebuild entire armed services.

Economic costs.

There are plenty of economic costs surrounding the war in Iraq. First it's a cost of deployment in Iraq of 40% of National Guard and Reserve forces. Quantifiable economic costs of it comprises of the difference between the civilian wages that these individuals would earn in their regular occupations and the lower wages they are usually paid in the Reserves. Another economic cost is the cost of military fatalities. It equals to the individual's earnings and contributions to the economy foregone due to their death. Here also comes the economic costs of those seriously injured, that comprises of additional healthcare expenditures that parties spend themselves apart from what government pays and the loss of economic services. Taking Stiglitz's calculations made by him in 2006 and extrapolating his figures to present day we'll get around 200 bln dollars of economic costs that US incurred due to the war in Iraq.

Uncounted costs.

Now let's try to list those costs that are obvious but not quantifiable. Consider the issue of security. War in Iraq and incidentally the overall instability in Middle East had aggravated the hatred of the United States throughout the world. That in its turn exacerbated the domestic threat of terror and made Americans obviously less safe and confident. There are of course many negative consequences of the war all of which cannot be comprehended. Below is just a shortlist of the costs omitted from above estimations:

* All costs borne by other countries, including Iraq.

* Costs of planning war.

* Costs of oil price volatility.

* Consequences of loss of credibility

* Reduced demands as a result of anti-American sentiment (e.g. loss of tourists)




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